Live Forecast Engine
Live · updated 2026-04-25 19:10 UTC

Commodity Scenario
Simulator

Model price shock scenarios before macro events, supply disruptions, or earnings season. Select a commodity, apply a scenario, and see how the ripple effects propagate through related equities.

Before OPEC? Open the oil playbook →
Control rail

Pick commodity, shock, horizon

One-click preset or custom ±σ, magnitude, and universe. Everything below adapts to your choice.

Visual stage

Price · forecast · propagation

Scenario fan chart, impact ladder, and sector pressure all render on the same stage so you read the move once.

Insight rail

Named names · triggers · alerts

Most exposed assets, likely winners, pressure points, and alert triggers — Pro unlocks the named layer.

Model call context

Forecast → RL policy → stock-level translation

The simulator is where the model story becomes useful: take the forecast range and RL policy action, then test which sectors and names become exposed under the commodity shock.

Forecast rangeChronos-2 + TimesFM path

Start with direction, interval, and model agreement.

RL policy actionReplay-backed policy selection

Use historical replay / walk-forward scoped action probabilities.

Pro conversionNamed exposure depth

Pro matters when sector pressure is not enough and stock-level conviction matters.

Unlock stock-level decision workflowInspect RL policy
Value preview

Your scenario preview is built

The simulator shows the public commodity path and first-pass sector pressure. That is enough to validate whether the shock matters.

What Pro unlocks

Pro adds the company sensitivity layer, deeper scenario comparisons, saved workflow context, and stock-level decision translation.

Unlock simulator depth Keep using preview

Historical replay and scenario output are research context, not a return guarantee or investment advice.

One-tap presets Pick a typical shock to load commodity, magnitude, and recommended follow-up in one click.
Fastest workflow
Select the commodity → apply the base shock → read the downstream sector pressure and likely follow-through.
Chronos-2 + TimesFM methodology →
Use before OPEC, WASDE, Fed, or earnings-linked commodity shocks.
Free = sector direction and model context. Pro = stock-level names and deeper workflow.
High-intent event entry points
Before OPEC → oil workflow Before WASDE → grains workflow Before Fed → metals workflow
Step 1 · Select commodity

Select Commodity

Step 2 · Apply baseline shock
Select a scenario to view analysis
Historical prices + consensus forecast with Chronos-2 and TimesFM comparison
History
Observed settlement path
Consensus
Primary forecast path
Chronos-2
Comparison model line
TimesFM 2.5
Comparison model line
Consensus range
Expected band, p10 to p90
Saved workflow context
No workflow saved yet. Save the commodity and your watchlist once, then this simulator becomes a much sharper daily decision surface.
Build my workflow See Pro workflow
Saved role
Not set yet
Saved commodities
No tracked commodities yet
Watchlist
No saved watchlist names yet
Freshness
Not saved yet
Decision workflow

Start with the preset shock, confirm the forecast direction, then read industry impact first and upgrade to company sensitivity only when naming the trade matters.

1. Set the base shock Choose the preset that matches the macro or supply story you actually care about.
2. Check model agreement Read consensus, Chronos-2, and TimesFM together before trusting one line in isolation.
3. Translate to positions Use sector direction first, then unlock stock-level sensitivity when naming the trade matters.

Forecasts are probabilistic. Consensus combines Chronos-2 and TimesFM 2.5, with p10–p90 ranges and model comparison. Not investment advice. See methodology

Where the free workflow stops

Free shows the move, forecast direction, and sector-level pressure. Pro matters when you need named winners, losers, and conviction before you act.

Best use of Pro

Run the scenario, verify model agreement, then name the actual winners and losers before the market fully reprices.

Unlock stock-level decision workflow
New premium layer

If you want event odds, ripple ranking, stress tests, hedge ideas, explainability, anomaly detection, and a trust-first policy decision console, open Intelligence Lab.

Open Intelligence Lab Open RL Policy Lab
Outcome summary
Run a baseline or event scenario to see likely winners, losers, and the confidence-sensitive read.
Watchlist relevance
Save a watchlist to see which names line up with this commodity shock.
Build watchlist
Current Price
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30-Day Consensus
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90-Day Consensus
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Use Pro for stock-level winners, losers, and deeper scenario translation after the forecast read.

Impact tornado

Ranks the sectors with the largest scenario-adjusted pressure or upside, so the first downstream read is obvious.

Scenario compare

Compares preset and geopolitical drivers by relevance, not just raw magnitude, so active shocks stand out.

Decision gauge

Readiness updates after each commodity or scenario change.

Forecast cone

Shows the public path, downside, and upside band so confidence is visible instead of implied.

Event timeline

Turns preset scenarios into an event beam so the active catalysts read like a sequence, not a flat checklist.

Geopolitical Scenarios
Toggle real-world events to model price impact
Industry impact
Read this as the first downstream translation layer: which sectors absorb the move, which ones benefit, and where cost or margin pressure shows up first.
Sector-first view
Company sensitivity
Upgrade when you need stock-level winners, losers, and beta-sensitive names instead of sector-level direction only.
Pro surface

Unlock the names most exposed to this scenario

See which stocks are most exposed to this commodity shock, with historical beta sensitivity and the conviction layer you need before the market fully reprices.

Unlock stock sensitivity — start Pro →