Intelligence Lab · Product 1

Event Probability Studio

Estimate catalyst odds before OPEC, WASDE, Fed, mine disruptions, export bans, and policy shifts fully hit the tape.

Unlock Event Probability Studio access Back to Intelligence Lab
Ideal buyer
Macro traders, event-driven investors, research desks
Best tier
Pro / Desk
Primary visual
Probability ladder + scenario tree
Continue your saved workflow
No workflow saved yet. Build your commodity workflow, save the names you care about, then return here when this module becomes decision-critical.
Build your workflow once, then use CommodityNode as a faster daily decision surface.

You already have a saved workflow. Re-open the live hub, then verify the scenario against your saved watchlist before the market reprices.

Build my workflow Run simulator with my watchlist
Saved role
Not set yet
Saved commodities
No tracked commodities yet
Watchlist
No saved watchlist names yet
Freshness
Not saved yet
What problem this solves

Forecasts alone are not enough

Users do not just need a number. They need to know which catalyst matters next, how likely it is, and what the upside/downside branches look like before the move becomes consensus.

What the product actually does

Turn catalysts into a tradeable dashboard

Event Probability Studio converts the current tape, model agreement, and curated catalyst map into an event-odds layer. It should answer: which event matters, what probability should I assign, and which sectors/names should I watch if it hits?

Interactive demo embed

Preview the module on a live commodity

The demo uses the current CommodityNode data stack and your saved workflow context so each product page behaves like a real product surface instead of static sales copy.

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Alert inactive
Workspace not saved yet
Saved workspaces stay in this browser so you can reopen the same module/commodity combination instantly.
Success dashboard

Operational readiness for this module

Catalyst confidence
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Event workflow depth
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Alert state
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Visualization system

How it should look on the site

  • Probability bars by catalyst
  • Scenario tree with base / upside / downside path
  • Event countdown card tied to calendar
  • Odds change vs prior day overlay
Monetization logic

Why users would pay for this

  • Investors pay for event prep, not generic hindsight.
  • Can be sold as a recurring event desk workflow.
  • Pairs naturally with simulator, reports, and premium alerts.
Inputs

Data required

  • Commodity price + forecast agreement
  • Event calendar
  • Curated catalyst library
  • Scenario shock definitions
Commercial hooks

How to gate it

  • Free: one public event odds card
  • Pro: full odds board per commodity
  • Desk: saved event watchlists + export
Product-specific pricing block

Which plan should unlock Event Probability Studio?

This module pays when it helps a user prepare before OPEC, Fed, WASDE, or supply-shock headlines force the move into consensus.

Free
Public preview

One public catalyst card and a static explanation of why it matters.

Pro
Self-directed edge

Full event odds board by commodity, refreshed against the live forecast stack.

Best fit · Pro / Desk
Desk
Workflow depth

Saved catalyst watchlists, event routing, and downloadable prep briefs for teams.

Best fit · Pro / Desk
Enterprise
Team / API / exports

Shared event calendar overlays, API-ready catalyst feeds, and distribution across desks.

See pricing for Pro / Desk Talk to us about team-wide event routing
Execution notes

What “extreme polish” means for this module

  • Odds should never look arbitrary; show confidence and why the probability moved.
  • Use event windows and update timestamps prominently.
  • Tie every event card to downstream winners/losers and simulator CTA.