Policy frontier · Risk brake · Rotation lane

Historical replay target-match — walk-forward scoped, not a live trading guarantee.

Intelligence Lab · Product 1

Event Probability Studio

Estimate catalyst odds before OPEC, WASDE, Fed, mine disruptions, export bans, and policy shifts fully hit the tape.

Compare Event Probability Studio access Back to Intelligence Lab

Current answer

The live decision read

Event Probability Studio converts the current tape, model agreement, and curated catalyst map into an event-odds layer. It should answer: which event matters, what probability should I assign, and which sectors/names should I watch if it hits?

Review this first
Use the current commodity snapshot to decide whether the watchlist exposure needs research review.

What would flip this decision?
A fresh price reversal, model disagreement, or catalyst miss would move this workflow route back to watch-only.

Ideal buyer

Macro traders, event-driven investors, research desks

Best tier

Pro / Desk

Primary visual

Probability ladder + scenario tree

Continue your saved workflow

Answer preview is available now. Save a workflow later if this module becomes decision-critical for your names.

Build my workflow Run simulator with my watchlist

Workspace role

Choose a role to personalize

Commodity loop

Use a preset or pick a commodity

Watchlist

Add tickers to map exposure

Freshness

Ready to attach

What problem this solves

Forecasts alone are not enough

Users do not just need a number. They need to know which catalyst matters next, how likely it is, and what the upside/downside branches look like before the move becomes consensus.

What the product actually does

Turn catalysts into a tradeable dashboard

Live decision workspace

Preview the module on a live commodity

This workspace uses the current CommodityNode data stack and your saved workflow context so each product page behaves like a live decision-support surface instead of static brochure copy.

Commodity selector

Decision preview ready — choose a commodity to refresh the chart.

Alert inactive

Decision preview active

Saved workspaces use account context when available; this browser-saved preview remains useful without setup.

Decision console

Current scenario review

Current scenario snapshot ready

The decision console opens with the latest verified scenario signal, confidence, and baseline comparison, then refreshes when live model data is available.

Trust strip

How reliable is this scenario signal right now?

Freshness, stability, guardrails, and policy readiness are visible before a team uses the signal in a decision-support workflow.

Policy observability board

What state is the model seeing right now?

Expose the live scenario context, state pressure, profile governance, and baseline comparison in one board so the user can audit the setup before deeper review.

Latest verified state, profile choice, and baseline comparison are shown; live model refresh can refine this board.

Animated policy field

See policy pressure moving across the action space

This field turns scenario-response probabilities into a living motion surface so the model feels like an active decision-support engine instead of a static table.

Policy guardrail Probability-weighted policy field using the latest verified artifact

Reduce risk0%

Hold0%

Add continuation0%

Add hedge0%

Relative-value rotation0%

Baseline comparison

How does the scenario response compare with baseline policies?

Show hold, offline, PPO bootstrap, and Neural PPO side-by-side so the user can see whether the workflow route is actually better than the current baseline.

Policy	Action	Confidence	Replay reward	Replay uplift	Walk uplift	Verdict

Core-5 policy bake-off

Which policy survives across the full commodity basket?

Rank the active policies on the same five-commodity slate, then show the weakest commodity explicitly so the workflow route is backed by evidence instead of average-case optimism.

Cross-commodity bake-off summary uses the latest verified Core-5 policy slate.

Why this workflow route?

What is driving the current action?

Explain the strongest positive and negative drivers, then ground the workflow route with simple reason codes and comparable historical states.

Scenario workbench

What would flip this decision?

Explore how event risk, volatility, agreement, disagreement, and trend strength change the workflow route before a user commits to action.

Policy audit trail

What changed, and when?

Keep a timeline of workflow route events, profile selection changes, alerts, and replay evidence so users can audit the workflow route path instead of trusting a static score.

Policy probability surface

Which action is the model leaning toward?

See how confidence is distributed across defensive, neutral, and continuation actions instead of trusting a single headline action.

Policy evolution

How did the policy change through training?

Compare offline policy, PPO bootstrap, and neural PPO so people can see the decision layer actually moving.

State vector

Which signals are dominating the current state?

Normalize the live observation so users can see whether agreement, event risk, volatility, disagreement, or trend is actually pushing the policy.

Regime pressure map

Where is the policy actually earning trust?

Contrast hit-rate and opportunity density across continuation, risk-off, hedge, and rotation regimes so blind spots are visible immediately.

Walk-forward windows

Did it hold up on unseen periods?

Each window shows out-of-sample reward, risk band, and dominant action so the policy cannot hide behind one lucky backtest.

Profile governance

Why is this profile the active workflow route profile?

Show device, timesteps, prior weight, and selection score so users know the current workflow route came from governed profile selection, not hand-picked marketing output.

Episode replay

What decisions did the policy actually make?

Replay the latest path step-by-step to show how the model reacts as the state shifts instead of pretending it is a black box.

Regime playbook matrix

What does the policy want to do across regimes?

Surface the best action and realized value in continuation, risk-off, hedge, and rotation states so the page feels like a regime console instead of a single headline action.

Reward stack

Where did performance come from?

Break historical replay outcome, review cost, risk band, concentration, and event-gap costs apart so users understand what is helping and hurting the policy.

Decision trace

What is the model deciding right now?

Current workflow route, confidence spread, and replay stats make the model feel alive instead of static marketing copy.

Success dashboard

Operational readiness for this module

Catalyst confidence

Verified

Latest decision snapshot available.

Event workflow depth

Guardrailed

Fallback copy keeps the surface useful while live model data refreshes.

Alert state

Actionable

Open the linked workflow for the next decision step.

Visualization system

How users should read it

Probability bars by catalyst
Scenario tree with base / upside / downside path
Event countdown card tied to calendar
Odds change vs prior day overlay

Decision value

What this helps decide

Investors pay for event prep, not generic hindsight.
Can be sold as a recurring event desk workflow.
Pairs naturally with simulator, reports, and premium alerts.

Inputs

Data required

Commodity price + forecast agreement
Event calendar
Curated catalyst library
Scenario shock definitions

Verified access depth

What Pro adds to the workflow

Free: one public event odds card
Pro: full odds board per commodity
Desk: saved event watchlists + export

Access level

Choose the right access level for Event Probability Studio

This module pays when it helps a user prepare before OPEC, Fed, WASDE, or supply-shock headlines force the move into consensus.

Free

Public preview

One public catalyst card and a static explanation of why it matters.

Pro

Self-directed research workflow

Full event odds board by commodity, refreshed against the live forecast stack.

Best fit · Pro / Desk

Desk

Workflow depth

Saved catalyst watchlists, event routing, and downloadable prep briefs for teams.