Model Limitations

Probabilistic outputs

Forecasts and simulations express possible ranges or scenario relationships. They can be wrong, especially during regime shifts, supply shocks, geopolitical events, exchange disruptions, or data outages.

Scenario tools

Shock simulators and policy labs are assumption-based tools. They estimate potential relationships across commodities, industries, and supply chains; they do not know a user’s financial situation and cannot provide personalized advice.

Model drift

Commodity relationships can change as policy, inventories, weather, capacity, demand, or logistics change. Any model can drift or become less reliable without warning.

Human review

AI-assisted research can accelerate analysis but may miss context. Users should verify key facts, timestamps, and assumptions before relying on any output.