Live Forecast Engine
Commodity Scenario
Simulator
Model price shock scenarios before macro events, supply disruptions, or earnings season. Select a commodity, apply a scenario, and see how the ripple effects propagate through related equities.
Before OPEC? Open the oil playbook →
One-tap presets
Pick a typical shock to load commodity, magnitude, and recommended follow-up in one click.
Fastest workflow
Select the commodity → apply the base shock → read the downstream sector pressure and likely follow-through.
Use before OPEC, WASDE, Fed, or earnings-linked commodity shocks.
Free = sector direction and model context. Pro = stock-level names and deeper workflow.
High-intent event entry points
Step 1 · Select commodity
Select Commodity
Step 2 · Apply baseline shock
Select a scenario to view analysis
Historical prices + consensus forecast with Chronos-2 and TimesFM comparison
History
Observed settlement path
Observed settlement path
Consensus
Primary forecast path
Primary forecast path
Chronos-2
Comparison model line
Comparison model line
TimesFM 2.5
Comparison model line
Comparison model line
Consensus range
Expected band, p10 to p90
Expected band, p10 to p90
Saved workflow context
Scenario preview is ready now. Save a watchlist later to personalize company exposure and follow-through.
Saved role
Choose a role to personalize
Saved commodities
Use a preset or pick a commodity
Watchlist
Add tickers to map exposure
Freshness
Ready to attach
Decision workflow
Start with the preset shock, confirm the forecast direction, then read industry impact first and upgrade to company sensitivity only when company-level exposure matters.
1. Set the base shock
Choose the preset that matches the macro or supply story you actually care about.
2. Check model agreement
Read consensus, Chronos-2, and TimesFM together before trusting one line in isolation.
3. Translate to exposure review
Use sector direction first, then unlock stock-level sensitivity when company-level exposure matters.
Forecasts are probabilistic. Consensus combines Chronos-2 and TimesFM 2.5, with p10–p90 ranges and model comparison. Research only. See methodology
Where the free workflow stops
Free shows the move, forecast direction, and sector-level pressure. Pro matters when you need named exposure, pressure points, and conviction before you document a review.
Best use of Pro
Run the scenario, verify model agreement, then name the actual helped and pressured exposures before the market fully reprices.
New premium layer
If you want event odds, ripple ranking, stress tests, hedge ideas, explainability, anomaly detection, and a trust-first policy decision console, open Intelligence Lab.
Outcome summary
Run a baseline or event scenario to see likely helped/pressured names and the confidence-sensitive read.
Watchlist relevance
Save a watchlist to see which names line up with this commodity shock.
Current Price
Latest verified snapshot
Latest verified feed
30-Day Consensus
30D ready
Scenario guarded
90-Day Consensus
90D ready
Consensus guarded
Use Pro for stock-level exposure, pressure points, and deeper scenario translation after the forecast read.
Is this commodity shock worth acting on now?
Select a commodity and scenario to translate the move into a workflow.
Decision frames route the workflow; they do not automate decisions.
Shock transmission map
Shows commodity → sector → company/watchlist flow as Research review only. Free keeps the sector path visible; Pro unlocks deeper company sensitivity.
- Commodity shock
- Sector pressure/helped exposure
- Company sensitivity rows
Impact tornado
Ranks the sectors with the largest scenario-adjusted pressure or upside, so the first downstream read is obvious.
Scenario exposure heatmap
Heatmap shows commodity shock intensity across sector and company exposure buckets. Research review only; it highlights where to investigate, not what to buy or sell.
Rows: sector / company groups · Columns: baseline, active shock, 30D, 90D.
Scenario compare
Compares preset and geopolitical drivers by relevance, not just raw magnitude, so active shocks stand out.
Decision gauge
Readiness updates after each commodity or scenario change.
Forecast cone
Shows the public path, downside, and upside band so confidence is visible instead of implied.
Event timeline
Turns preset scenarios into an event beam so the active catalysts read like a sequence, not a flat checklist.
Geopolitical Scenarios
Toggle real-world events to model price impact
Industry impact
Read this as the first downstream translation layer: which sectors absorb the move, which ones benefit, and where cost or margin pressure shows up first.
Sector-first view
Company sensitivity
Upgrade when you need stock-level helped/pressured exposures and beta-sensitive names instead of sector-level direction only.
Pro surface
| Name | Scenario sensitivity | Access |
|---|---|---|
| Sector proxy basket | Visible sector-level exposure | Free |
| Top public sample row | Illustrative beta sensitivity | Free sample |
| Full company sensitivity table | Masked until research access | Unlock research rows |
| Invalidation and export notes | Masked until research access | Pro locked |
Need team seats, exports, and alerts? Running this every Monday with a desk? Request a sample export.